The Rebound Of The Three Pmis Exceeded The Market Expectation

On April 1, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and China logistics The purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing and non manufacturing industries in March was released with the Purchasing Federation. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the data, China's manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range in March, while the non manufacturing PMI rebounded significantly.

The specific data shows that in March, manufacturing industry PMI was 50.2%, 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. For the first time since August last year, PMI returned above the boom and bust line, and some positive changes began to appear. The PMI of non manufacturing industry was 53.8%, up 1.1 percentage points over the previous month, which was a large increase in the past two years and slightly higher than the level of the same period last year. In addition, the PMI of Caixin's manufacturing industry in March was 49.7%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the market expectation and 1.7 percentage points higher than that in February.

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.5%, up 1.6 percentage points over the previous month, which was the main support for the return of PMI to the expansion range this month; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.1%, 0.1 percentage points higher than that of last month, and remained below the critical point; The PMI of small enterprises was 48.1%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range.

"From the data, after the Spring Festival, enterprises started work in a centralized manner, which was affected by Supply side Under the influence of structural reform, the production and market of the manufacturing industry have recovered, and the demand of the import and export market of the manufacturing industry has rebounded, returning to the state of expansion. At the same time, the price of international bulk commodities rebounded in shock, the prices of important means of production in some circulation fields continued to rebound, and the procurement activities of enterprises tended to be active. Structural adjustment was actively promoted, and the manufacturing industry continued to move towards the middle and high-end. In addition, the recovery of fixed asset investment and the recovery of the real estate market have promoted production and consumption to a certain extent. " Zhao Qinghe said.

Ren Zeping, chief macro analyst of Guotai Junan Securities, said in an interview with media reporters that the manufacturing PMI, non manufacturing PMI and Caixin PMI rebounded in March, exceeding market expectations. Supply, demand, price and other sub items have rebounded significantly, and the economy shows obvious signs of short-term improvement, without stagflation.

Zhu Zhenxin, a researcher of Minsheng Securities, said in an interview with media reporters that the purchasing index of production demand rose sharply, indicating that enterprises resumed work after the Spring Festival, and the economy rebounded in the short term. It is expected that the second quarter will become the best window for the economy of the whole year. The high growth of credit cooperatives financing in the first quarter deviated from the funds in place. After the commencement of the project in the second quarter, high social financing will gradually enter the project and be converted into funds in place. At the same time, the investment in the new construction plan increased by 41%, a new high since 2009. Supported by money and projects, the second quarter may be the release period of early policies, and the economy is expected to improve month on month. Economic stabilization and inflation expectations are rising. Monetary policy will continue to focus on hedging, and big moves still need to wait.