The Retail Industry Will Gradually Recover, And The Clothing Market Is In Urgent Need Of Transformation And Upgrading

In the first three quarters of 2016, the retail sales of clothing products of the country's top 100 major retail enterprises reached a new low of - 1.8% since 2004. In the first three quarters, the retail volume of all kinds of clothing of the country's 100 key large-scale retail enterprises increased by 0.6% year on year, 6.5 percentage points slower than the same period last year. Among them, in September, the retail volume of all kinds of clothing of the country's 100 key large-scale retail enterprises increased by 0.2% year on year, 2.8 percentage points slower than that of last month, and 8.8 percentage points slower than that of the same period last year. In terms of average sales price, there has been negative growth for two consecutive years.

As one of the troikas driving China's economy, "consumption" has become the core focus of China's economic growth at a time when investment and exports are relatively low. The General Office of the State Council recently issued the Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Transformation of Entity Retailing (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). With CPI data is back to the "two times", and the growth rate of local retail terminal sales is expected to further. In the future, China's retail industry will gradually get a better recovery expectation.

In addition to the guiding ideology and basic principles, the Opinions also put forward 16 opinions, including adjusting the regional structure, adjusting the structure of business types, adjusting the commodity structure, innovating the operating mechanism, innovating the organizational form, innovating the service experience, promoting online and offline integration, promoting multi field collaboration, promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade, strengthening the network planning, promoting the streamlining of administration and decentralization of power Promote fair competition, improve public services, reduce the tax burden of enterprises, strengthen financial support, and carry out pilot demonstration drive.

The Opinions clarifies the next development direction of physical retailing, and proposes to promote three transformations of physical retailing: first, the transformation from selling goods to guiding production, promoting supply side structural reform, innovating lifestyle, and expanding consumption; Second, the former decentralized and independent competitive subject has changed to the new ecological direction of integration and coordination; Third, from the previous extensive development to focus on quality and efficiency. It also strengthened policy support in strengthening network planning, promoting streamlining administration and decentralization, promoting fair competition, improving public services, reducing the burden of taxes and fees on enterprises, strengthening financial support, and carrying out pilot demonstration drive.

Xu Wen, an analyst at Guojin Securities, said that at present, the local retail industry is in a dilemma of oversupply and rising costs. The issuance of the Opinions will undoubtedly create favorable conditions for the retail industry to lighten its burden and go into battle light. The market-oriented revitalization of commercial facilities and resources, and the streamlining of government administration and decentralization will strengthen the flexibility of retail enterprises' operation. The poorly managed stores are expected to exit the core business circle orderly by transforming office buildings and other ways to ease the fierce competitive environment. Enterprises with rich experiential business types and strong business operation capabilities are expected to benefit. The government lowered the threshold for distribution centers, improved the urban distribution vehicle access system, and created conditions for night distribution and joint distribution, Retail enterprises The operational efficiency of logistics warehousing is expected to be improved, which will further reduce inventory costs. If the tax reduction policy can be implemented in the future, it will directly and substantially benefit the whole retail industry, including the clothing industry.

According to the monitoring data of the big database of industry and economy, in the first half of this year, under the downturn of terminal consumption, the operating pressure of various businesses continued to increase. In the domestic retail industry, the department store sector declined for two consecutive quarters, with revenue growth rates of - 1.7% and - 4% respectively. Supermarkets are in a stage of accelerated decline, with operating revenue (excluding Yonghui Supermarket) falling by 2.79% and 5.87% respectively. Gold and jewelry continued to be depressed, with the revenue growth of the first two quarters only 0.66% and -5.93%. Since the second half of the year, the zero growth rate of the community has shown a bottom improvement trend. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.7% year on year, the highest monthly growth rate since this year.

The sales growth of large retail enterprises improved significantly month on month. In September, the retail sales of 50 key large retail enterprises in China increased by 2.3% year on year, higher than - 1.1% in the same period of last year, and increased by 3.1 percentage points month on month. By category, optional consumer goods such as cosmetics, clothing, gold jewelry, and household appliances continued to recover month on month. The data obtained shows that in the first three quarters of 2016, the retail sales of clothing products of one hundred key large-scale retail enterprises in China dropped by 1.8%, 3.1 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year, and 1.5 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year. Among them, in September, the retail sales of clothing products of 100 key large-scale retail enterprises in China increased by 2.4% year on year, 7.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and 2.6 percentage points higher than that of last month.

From the historical data, in the first three quarters of 2016, the retail sales of clothing products of the country's 100 key large-scale retail enterprises grew at about - 1.8%, shrinking for the sixth consecutive year, hitting a new low since 2004. clothing The growth rate of retail sales of commodities was 0.6%, the second lowest since 2004. During the same period, wholesale and retail enterprises above the designated size in the whole society, clothing, shoes and hats Knitwear The accumulated retail sales reached 1002 billion yuan, up 7.2% year on year, which was also the lowest growth rate since 2004. What the industry also needs to see is that there are too many successful cases of physical stores in the clothing industry, and the key is whether the brand, product, channel and consumer are really matched in place. Therefore, what the industry needs to do now is still to do a good job in consumer demand analysis, and return to the management of retail stores that are good people, goods and markets.