Limited Demand Growth Acrylonitrile Is Hard To Change

The acrylonitrile market in October has come to an end. The settlement price of Sinopec in this month was 11300 yuan/ton, higher than the expected level. Most of the middlemen said that they had lost money, because the spot price had dropped to around 11000 yuan at the beginning of the second half of the month. Smooth sales and controllable inventory of major manufacturers are the main factors supporting the settlement level of manufacturers this month. Although the supply of this month has increased by nearly 30000 tons, some of them need to supplement the supply gap of last month, thus easing the excess pressure of this month to some extent.

After the announcement of the manufacturer's settlement this month, the acrylonitrile market fell into a stalemate. The traders continued to show caution due to cost constraints, so the market decline was controlled. However, during this period, there were still some low price goods in circulation, concentrated in the northern market, with prices ranging from 10300-10500 yuan/ton, but the overall volume of goods was not much. The emergence of low price goods reflects the weak expectation of the market from the side. In addition, according to the market feedback recently, many businesses are also bearish on the acrylonitrile market next month.

The bearish expectation of the acrylonitrile market is mainly based on two aspects: sufficient supply and limited demand growth. First, the market supply side. Despite the overhaul of Anqing Petrochemical, the two new manufacturers, Silbang Phase II and Shandong Haijiang, were added from September to October. They are expected to be fully operational in November, releasing more than 30000 tons of output, which will fully cover the lost output of Anqing Petrochemical's overhaul station. In addition, with the completion of the maintenance of foreign devices, the price of the external plate is also falling, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile export volume will also decline in November.

Compared with the supply increment, the downstream demand growth is still limited. The ABS industry has been operating at more than 90% load since September, and it is difficult to have a large increase in the future. Although the acrylamide industry has made a good profit this year, its industry scale is generally small, the production stability of enterprises is not high, and the consumption is difficult to grow significantly. The downstream acrylic fiber industry, which has the most direct impact on the acrylonitrile industry, has generally started at less than 70% since August. Although the terminal demand improved during the Golden Age and the Silver Age, the output of acrylic fiber did not increase significantly.

Start up change downstream of acrylonitrile main force

On the whole, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market price in November will still have room for decline, or touch the upper position of the cost line. It is expected that the price of mainstream cans in the East China market will fall to 10500 yuan/ton or lower.